Coming soon... Satellite forecasting
Posted: Mon May 11, 2026 1:26 pm
This is just an intro to a feature that will be making a debut in the next update to SharpCap 4.2 Beta - a satellite forecasting tool to give you an idea of how likely you are to get passing through each frame depending on your location, time and where you are looking...
It turns out that the number of satellites that you might see depends on time, date, location and the direction you are looking in a remarkably complex way. For example there are nearly 5000 starlink satellites that orbit with an orbital inclination of about 53.2 degrees. If you are significantly north of 53 degrees then you just won't be affected by those satellites. Even here at about 51.6N, if you are looking into the northern sky below about 60 degrees of altitude, you are looking 'under' those satellites - where your line of sight reaches the altitude of the satellites is beyond their orbital limit of 53.2 degrees so they are not affecting you.
On the other hand, where that group of satellites reach their latitude limit of 53.2 degrees, their orbits are roughly E-W, so they spend longer at those latitudes than at other latitudes, meaning you get a band with higher density across the sky near the turnaround point.
On top of that, the altitude that your view direction intersects with the orbit of the satellites has to be calculated. In some parts of the sky, that intersection point might be inside the Earth's shadow, meaning that the satellites will not be reflecting significant amounts of light and will be invisible.
The sort of plot you will get looks like this...
Think of this as like a planisphere view of the sky - as if you are looking up at the sky - with North at the top. The colours show the chances of one or more satellites being in a frame based on the set exposure, field of view, time, date and location - ranging from below 1% (grey, purple, blue) to 50 to 100% (orange to red). The plot shown is for the equinox when the variations across the sky are very pronounced. Image a target in the west and you have a high chance of getting satellites (20% or more), but in the east of the sky it is significantly lower - 5 to 10% or less. Note that in this screenshot, the sun's position is 22 degrees below the horizon - astronomical darkness.
SharpCap shows the familiar constellation outlines, the mount position and the sun/moon on this plot to make orientation/interpretation easier.
The calculations are based on the orbits of (currently) about 14,000 satellites in low and mid orbits. SharpCap is not calculating the position of each satellite individually, but instead divides them into groups with similar orbital characteristics. SharpCap is calculating for about 100 different groups that between them total about 96% of active satellites in those orbits.
I'm still fine-tuning both the way the data is displayed in the plot on the right and how you control the calculations (changing date, time, location, etc) on the left. Even with the current basic setup, you can step forward in time by 1hr or 15min at a time, meaning you can work things out like waiting to image a target until later in the evening when it will be in an area with less satellites, or imaging in a different part of the sky in the earlier part of the evening.
comments welcome,
Robin
It turns out that the number of satellites that you might see depends on time, date, location and the direction you are looking in a remarkably complex way. For example there are nearly 5000 starlink satellites that orbit with an orbital inclination of about 53.2 degrees. If you are significantly north of 53 degrees then you just won't be affected by those satellites. Even here at about 51.6N, if you are looking into the northern sky below about 60 degrees of altitude, you are looking 'under' those satellites - where your line of sight reaches the altitude of the satellites is beyond their orbital limit of 53.2 degrees so they are not affecting you.
On the other hand, where that group of satellites reach their latitude limit of 53.2 degrees, their orbits are roughly E-W, so they spend longer at those latitudes than at other latitudes, meaning you get a band with higher density across the sky near the turnaround point.
On top of that, the altitude that your view direction intersects with the orbit of the satellites has to be calculated. In some parts of the sky, that intersection point might be inside the Earth's shadow, meaning that the satellites will not be reflecting significant amounts of light and will be invisible.
The sort of plot you will get looks like this...
Think of this as like a planisphere view of the sky - as if you are looking up at the sky - with North at the top. The colours show the chances of one or more satellites being in a frame based on the set exposure, field of view, time, date and location - ranging from below 1% (grey, purple, blue) to 50 to 100% (orange to red). The plot shown is for the equinox when the variations across the sky are very pronounced. Image a target in the west and you have a high chance of getting satellites (20% or more), but in the east of the sky it is significantly lower - 5 to 10% or less. Note that in this screenshot, the sun's position is 22 degrees below the horizon - astronomical darkness.
SharpCap shows the familiar constellation outlines, the mount position and the sun/moon on this plot to make orientation/interpretation easier.
The calculations are based on the orbits of (currently) about 14,000 satellites in low and mid orbits. SharpCap is not calculating the position of each satellite individually, but instead divides them into groups with similar orbital characteristics. SharpCap is calculating for about 100 different groups that between them total about 96% of active satellites in those orbits.
I'm still fine-tuning both the way the data is displayed in the plot on the right and how you control the calculations (changing date, time, location, etc) on the left. Even with the current basic setup, you can step forward in time by 1hr or 15min at a time, meaning you can work things out like waiting to image a target until later in the evening when it will be in an area with less satellites, or imaging in a different part of the sky in the earlier part of the evening.
comments welcome,
Robin